Scouting Report
Adam Lowry holds a +10.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Lowry on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 10 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 51.6% vs Carlsson 41.1% (+10.9%)
H2H factor
Lowry leads 19-13 in 32 meetings
Offensive zone
Lowry 69.5%
Defensive zone
Lowry 94.2%
Neutral zone
Lowry 88.6%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 85.6%
85.6%
14.4%
Lowry
Carlsson
Head-to-Head Record
19
-
13
(32 meetings)
19
13
Lowry
Carlsson
Last 10: Lowry 6-4 Carlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carlsson
2
6
Lowry
Carlsson
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
8
2
Lowry
Carlsson
10 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lowry
9
5
Lowry
Carlsson
14 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Carlsson
Edge
Even Strength
52.9% (9,162)
40.9% (1,878)
+12.0%
Power Play
57.2% (456)
42.9% (156)
+14.3%
Penalty Kill
44.8% (2,150)
34.7% (121)
+10.1%
On power play, Lowry has a +14.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carlsson shoots left. Lowry is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,758).
Lowry shoots left. Carlsson is 40.3% vs left-shot opponents (1,512).
Home / Away
Lowry
Carlsson
Home
53.5% (5,920)
42.2% (1,051)
Away
49.6% (5,848)
39.2% (1,104)
By Period
Lowry
Carlsson
P1
51.6%
43.3%
P2
51.7%
36.2%
P3
51.5%
43.3%
OT
46.3%
40.7%
Final 5 min
52.8%
39.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
52.0%▼
53.5%
51.6%
Carlsson
32.0%▼
39.0%
40.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2026 | 3 | 16:03 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 08:08 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 1 | 08:52 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 1 | 04:11 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 1 | 00:58 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Feb 27, 2026 | 3 | 08:25 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Feb 27, 2026 | 3 | 02:54 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Feb 27, 2026 | 3 | 00:47 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Feb 27, 2026 | 2 | 19:19 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Feb 27, 2026 | 2 | 15:27 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Feb 27, 2026 | 2 | 05:58 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 2 | 00:08 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 1 | 06:01 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 1 | 03:09 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 3 | 07:55 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 18, 2024 | 3 | 11:10 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 10, 2023 | 3 | 18:18 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |