Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (91% H2H, 23 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 51.6% vs Duchene 54.1% (-2.6%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 48-29 in 77 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 52.4%
Defensive zone
Lowry 86.5%
Neutral zone
Lowry 65.7%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 68.4%
68.4%
31.6%
Lowry
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
29
-
48
(77 meetings)
29
48
Lowry
Duchene
Last 10: Lowry 5-5 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
21
Lowry
Duchene
23 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
21
9
Lowry
Duchene
30 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
6
18
Lowry
Duchene
24 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
52.9% (9,162)
53.9% (10,438)
-1.0%
Power Play
57.2% (456)
57.0% (1,677)
+0.2%
Penalty Kill
44.8% (2,150)
49.1% (468)
-4.3%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +4.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Lowry is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,758).
Lowry shoots left. Duchene is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (8,089).
Home / Away
Lowry
Duchene
Home
53.5% (5,920)
55.6% (6,430)
Away
49.6% (5,848)
52.7% (6,177)
By Period
Lowry
Duchene
P1
51.6%
54.4%
P2
51.7%
54.5%
P3
51.5%
53.4%
OT
46.3%
56.3%
Final 5 min
52.8%
53.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
52.0%▼
53.5%
51.6%
Duchene
56.0%▲
51.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 01:16 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 2 | 15:45 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 1 | 17:35 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 1, 2024 | 3 | 12:07 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 1, 2024 | 1 | 18:54 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 1, 2024 | 1 | 18:50 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 9, 2024 | 2 | 03:59 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 9, 2024 | 1 | 01:10 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 2 | 19:41 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 3 | 06:07 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 2 | 13:24 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 2 | 03:50 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 1 | 00:08 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 2 | 14:17 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 1 | 06:46 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 3 | 15:57 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 3 | 09:58 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 1 | 11:03 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |