Scouting Report
Michael McCarron holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Lowry on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 15 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 51.6% vs McCarron 52.6% (-1.1%)
H2H factor
Lowry leads 19-12 in 31 meetings
Offensive zone
Lowry 60.9%
Defensive zone
Lowry 54.7%
Neutral zone
Lowry 59.2%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 57.4%
57.4%
42.6%
Lowry
McCarron
Head-to-Head Record
19
-
12
(31 meetings)
19
12
Lowry
McCarron
Last 10: Lowry 5-5 McCarron
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
5
2
Lowry
McCarron
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
10
5
Lowry
McCarron
15 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McCarron
4
5
Lowry
McCarron
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
McCarron
Edge
Even Strength
52.9% (9,162)
53.3% (2,926)
-0.4%
Power Play
57.2% (456)
45.3% (86)
+11.9%
Penalty Kill
44.8% (2,150)
50.1% (469)
-5.3%
On power play, Lowry has a +11.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McCarron shoots right. Lowry is 52.2% vs right-shot opponents (4,010).
Lowry shoots left. McCarron is 52.5% vs left-shot opponents (2,425).
Home / Away
Lowry
McCarron
Home
53.5% (5,920)
52.3% (1,696)
Away
49.6% (5,848)
53.1% (1,785)
By Period
Lowry
McCarron
P1
51.6%
53.8%
P2
51.7%
52.3%
P3
51.5%
51.9%
OT
46.3%
33.3%
Final 5 min
52.8%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
52.0%▼
53.5%
51.6%
McCarron
38.0%▼
49.0%
52.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2025 | 3 | 09:45 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 2 | 19:48 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 2 | 10:18 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 2 | 06:43 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 2 | 00:30 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 1 | 11:05 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Dec 30, 2024 | 2 | 01:30 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 3 | 18:39 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 3 | 08:28 | Offensive | Michael McCarron |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 2 | 16:04 | Offensive | Michael McCarron |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 2 | 11:48 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 1 | 12:46 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Mar 13, 2024 | 3 | 15:09 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 13, 2024 | 3 | 02:49 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Mar 13, 2024 | 3 | 00:15 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Mar 13, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 13, 2024 | 2 | 00:49 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Mar 13, 2024 | 2 | 00:43 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Nov 26, 2023 | 3 | 16:16 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 26, 2023 | 3 | 11:14 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |