Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 53.5% vs Frost 56.4% (-3.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 81.8%
Defensive zone
Lowry 83.1%
Neutral zone
Frost 50.2%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 66.0%
34.0%
66.0%
Lowry
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Lowry
Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
0
1
Lowry
Frost
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lowry
1
0
Lowry
Frost
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
55.7% (707)
56.0% (755)
-0.3%
Power Play
85.7% (7)
60.1% (173)
+25.6%
Penalty Kill
39.0% (100)
88.9% (9)
-49.9%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +49.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Lowry is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (561).
Lowry shoots left. Frost is 58.1% vs left-shot opponents (647).
Home / Away
Lowry
Frost
Home
54.3% (429)
57.3% (497)
Away
53.5% (385)
56.8% (440)
By Period
Lowry
Frost
P1
53.1%
60.2%
P2
55.2%
56.0%
P3
54.4%
54.8%
OT
40.0%
63.6%
Final 5 min
57.1%
52.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
52.0%▼
53.5%
53.9%
Frost
68.0%▲
63.0%
57.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 15, 2025 | 3 | 17:26 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 13:29 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |