Scouting Report
Adam Lowry holds a +4.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Foligno on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 53.5% vs Foligno 49.9% (+4.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Foligno 63.9%
Defensive zone
Lowry 56.8%
Neutral zone
Foligno 53.4%
Result
Nick Foligno favored at 57.7%
42.3%
57.7%
Lowry
Foligno
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Lowry
Foligno
Last 5: Lowry 2-3 Foligno
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Foligno
1
2
Lowry
Foligno
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
1
0
Lowry
Foligno
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Foligno
0
1
Lowry
Foligno
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Foligno
Edge
Even Strength
55.7% (707)
49.5% (291)
+6.2%
Power Play
85.7% (7)
55.8% (43)
+29.9%
Penalty Kill
39.0% (100)
47.2% (53)
-8.2%
On power play, Lowry has a +29.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Foligno shoots left. Lowry is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (561).
Lowry shoots left. Foligno is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (208).
Home / Away
Lowry
Foligno
Home
54.3% (429)
48.9% (178)
Away
53.5% (385)
50.7% (209)
By Period
Lowry
Foligno
P1
53.1%
43.0%
P2
55.2%
55.9%
P3
54.4%
50.0%
OT
40.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
57.1%
51.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
52.0%▼
53.5%
53.9%
Foligno
54.0%▲
50.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | 1 | 18:48 | Neutral | Nick Foligno |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 3 | 17:01 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 2 | 17:51 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 2 | 14:38 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 1 | 11:05 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |