Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (53.9% vs 54.3%).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 53.5% vs Paul 53.6% (-0.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Paul 72.5%
Defensive zone
Lowry 68.7%
Neutral zone
Lowry 56.7%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 58.8%
41.2%
58.8%
Lowry
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Lowry
Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Lowry
Paul
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
1
0
Lowry
Paul
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
55.7% (707)
53.7% (354)
+2.0%
Power Play
85.7% (7)
59.0% (61)
+26.7%
Penalty Kill
39.0% (100)
52.9% (34)
-13.9%
On power play, Lowry has a +26.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Lowry is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (561).
Lowry shoots left. Paul is 54.2% vs left-shot opponents (321).
Home / Away
Lowry
Paul
Home
54.3% (429)
55.1% (216)
Away
53.5% (385)
53.6% (233)
By Period
Lowry
Paul
P1
53.1%
54.9%
P2
55.2%
54.5%
P3
54.4%
54.3%
OT
40.0%
44.4%
Final 5 min
57.1%
57.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
52.0%▼
53.5%
53.9%
Paul
54.0%▼
56.5%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 09:25 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 00:29 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 06:28 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |