Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.6% vs 52.3%). Look for Paul on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 18 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 51.6% vs Paul 52.2% (-0.7%)
H2H factor
Paul leads 23-17 in 40 meetings
Offensive zone
Paul 61.1%
Defensive zone
Lowry 67.4%
Neutral zone
Lowry 53.2%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 50.1%
49.9%
50.1%
Lowry
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
17
-
23
(40 meetings)
17
23
Lowry
Paul
Last 10: Lowry 4-6 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
6
12
Lowry
Paul
18 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
5
4
Lowry
Paul
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
6
7
Lowry
Paul
13 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
52.9% (9,162)
52.6% (3,823)
+0.3%
Power Play
57.2% (456)
56.2% (484)
+1.0%
Penalty Kill
44.8% (2,150)
46.9% (576)
-2.1%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Lowry is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,758).
Lowry shoots left. Paul is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (3,089).
Home / Away
Lowry
Paul
Home
53.5% (5,920)
52.8% (2,445)
Away
49.6% (5,848)
51.7% (2,439)
By Period
Lowry
Paul
P1
51.6%
53.8%
P2
51.7%
51.0%
P3
51.5%
52.2%
OT
46.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
52.8%
51.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
52.0%▼
53.5%
51.6%
Paul
54.0%▼
56.5%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 09:25 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 00:29 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 06:28 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 14, 2024 | 3 | 03:27 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 14, 2024 | 3 | 01:30 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 14, 2024 | 2 | 18:26 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 14, 2024 | 2 | 01:39 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 14, 2024 | 1 | 10:11 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 3, 2024 | 3 | 06:51 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Jan 2, 2024 | 3 | 18:34 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 2, 2024 | 3 | 16:45 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 2, 2024 | 2 | 12:07 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 3 | 15:02 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 3 | 08:35 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 2 | 03:54 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 2 | 03:49 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 1 | 17:25 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 12, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Paul |