Scouting Report
Adam Lowry holds a +7.7% FO% edge overall. Lowry wins 60.9% vs right-shot opponents — Schmaltz shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 53.5% vs Schmaltz 46.6% (+7.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Schmaltz 81.2%
Defensive zone
Lowry 81.9%
Neutral zone
Schmaltz 50.2%
Result
Nick Schmaltz favored at 57.7%
42.3%
57.7%
Lowry
Schmaltz
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Lowry
Schmaltz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
0
2
Lowry
Schmaltz
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
1
0
Lowry
Schmaltz
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lowry
1
0
Lowry
Schmaltz
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Schmaltz
Edge
Even Strength
55.7% (707)
45.9% (697)
+9.8%
Power Play
85.7% (7)
47.9% (117)
+37.8%
Penalty Kill
39.0% (100)
48.0% (25)
-9.0%
On power play, Lowry has a +37.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Schmaltz shoots right. Lowry is 60.9% vs right-shot opponents (253).
Lowry shoots left. Schmaltz is 41.8% vs left-shot opponents (593).
Home / Away
Lowry
Schmaltz
Home
54.3% (429)
44.9% (434)
Away
53.5% (385)
47.7% (405)
By Period
Lowry
Schmaltz
P1
53.1%
41.5%
P2
55.2%
46.7%
P3
54.4%
51.1%
OT
40.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
57.1%
40.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
52.0%▼
53.5%
53.9%
Schmaltz
42.0%▼
46.0%
46.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 21, 2025 | 3 | 10:53 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 3 | 08:36 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 3 | 07:46 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 2 | 17:05 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |