Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 53.5% vs O'Reilly 55.0% (-1.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 72.8%
Defensive zone
Lowry 72.3%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 50.2%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 58.7%
41.3%
58.7%
Lowry
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Lowry
O'Reilly
Last 8: Lowry 4-4 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
4
Lowry
O'Reilly
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
2
0
Lowry
O'Reilly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lowry
1
0
Lowry
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
55.7% (707)
55.7% (856)
+0.0%
Power Play
85.7% (7)
57.5% (233)
+28.2%
Penalty Kill
39.0% (100)
50.0% (144)
-11.0%
On power play, Lowry has a +28.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Lowry is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (561).
Lowry shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.8% vs left-shot opponents (703).
Home / Away
Lowry
O'Reilly
Home
54.3% (429)
55.5% (616)
Away
53.5% (385)
55.3% (617)
By Period
Lowry
O'Reilly
P1
53.1%
58.1%
P2
55.2%
54.9%
P3
54.4%
53.9%
OT
40.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
57.1%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
52.0%▼
53.5%
53.9%
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2026 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 17:02 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 09:57 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 08:55 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 01:31 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 3 | 17:26 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 2 | 07:49 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 1 | 11:06 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |