Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 65 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 51.6% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-4.4%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 92-71 in 163 meetings
Offensive zone
Lowry 68.0%
Defensive zone
Lowry 85.5%
Neutral zone
Lowry 72.9%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 75.3%
75.3%
24.7%
Lowry
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
71
-
92
(163 meetings)
71
92
Lowry
O'Reilly
Last 10: Lowry 5-5 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
13
52
Lowry
O'Reilly
65 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
40
17
Lowry
O'Reilly
57 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
18
23
Lowry
O'Reilly
41 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
52.9% (9,162)
56.2% (15,290)
-3.3%
Power Play
57.2% (456)
58.7% (3,457)
-1.5%
Penalty Kill
44.8% (2,150)
51.4% (2,826)
-6.6%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +6.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Lowry is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,758).
Lowry shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,901).
Home / Away
Lowry
O'Reilly
Home
53.5% (5,920)
57.6% (10,799)
Away
49.6% (5,848)
54.4% (10,807)
By Period
Lowry
O'Reilly
P1
51.6%
55.6%
P2
51.7%
57.0%
P3
51.5%
55.0%
OT
46.3%
62.2%
Final 5 min
52.8%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
52.0%▼
53.5%
51.6%
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2026 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 17:02 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 09:57 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 08:55 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 01:31 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 3 | 17:26 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 2 | 07:49 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 1 | 11:06 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 1 | 04:26 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 1 | 04:24 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 3 | 17:28 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 3 | 13:43 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 3 | 13:25 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 3 | 13:05 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 3 | 08:54 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 3 | 02:43 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 2 | 10:57 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 2 | 10:35 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 1 | 11:59 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 30, 2024 | 3 | 07:37 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |