Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.6% vs 52.3%). Look for Carrick on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 51.6% vs Carrick 52.2% (-0.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lowry 58.9%
Defensive zone
Lowry 55.7%
Neutral zone
Lowry 56.8%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 57.1%
57.1%
42.9%
Lowry
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Lowry
Carrick
Last 7: Lowry 2-5 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Lowry
Carrick
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
2
Lowry
Carrick
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carrick
1
2
Lowry
Carrick
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
52.9% (9,162)
52.2% (2,544)
+0.7%
Power Play
57.2% (456)
61.3% (75)
-4.1%
Penalty Kill
44.8% (2,150)
50.8% (435)
-6.0%
On penalty kill, Carrick has a +6.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Lowry is 52.2% vs right-shot opponents (4,010).
Lowry shoots left. Carrick is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (2,211).
Home / Away
Lowry
Carrick
Home
53.5% (5,920)
51.5% (1,477)
Away
49.6% (5,848)
53.0% (1,577)
By Period
Lowry
Carrick
P1
51.6%
51.8%
P2
51.7%
52.3%
P3
51.5%
52.6%
OT
46.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
52.8%
49.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
52.0%▼
53.5%
51.6%
Carrick
60.0%▲
57.0%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2025 | 2 | 12:30 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 1 | 05:23 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 1 | 05:18 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 5, 2024 | 1 | 04:50 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 10, 2023 | 3 | 06:46 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 4, 2022 | 3 | 07:31 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 4, 2022 | 1 | 18:24 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |