Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Lowry wins 60.9% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 53.5% vs Stamkos 55.4% (-2.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 85.1%
Defensive zone
Lowry 78.3%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 51.4%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 51.4%
48.6%
51.4%
Lowry
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Lowry
Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lowry
1
0
Lowry
Stamkos
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
55.7% (707)
57.1% (368)
-1.4%
Power Play
85.7% (7)
55.2% (96)
+30.5%
Penalty Kill
39.0% (100)
50.0% (10)
-11.0%
On power play, Lowry has a +30.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Lowry is 60.9% vs right-shot opponents (253).
Lowry shoots left. Stamkos is 58.6% vs left-shot opponents (353).
Home / Away
Lowry
Stamkos
Home
54.3% (429)
53.9% (230)
Away
53.5% (385)
59.0% (244)
By Period
Lowry
Stamkos
P1
53.1%
56.7%
P2
55.2%
54.1%
P3
54.4%
59.2%
OT
40.0%
62.5%
Final 5 min
57.1%
59.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
52.0%▼
53.5%
53.9%
Stamkos
66.0%▲
56.5%
56.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 11:41 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |