Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.6% vs 51.1%). Look for Lowry on neutral-zone draws (81% H2H, 21 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 51.6% vs Stamkos 51.1% (+0.5%)
H2H factor
Lowry leads 34-23 in 57 meetings
Offensive zone
Stamkos 75.9%
Defensive zone
Lowry 82.0%
Neutral zone
Lowry 52.6%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 50.9%
50.9%
49.1%
Lowry
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
34
-
23
(57 meetings)
34
23
Lowry
Stamkos
Last 10: Lowry 9-1 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
6
14
Lowry
Stamkos
20 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
11
5
Lowry
Stamkos
16 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lowry
17
4
Lowry
Stamkos
21 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
52.9% (9,162)
50.5% (9,825)
+2.4%
Power Play
57.2% (456)
55.2% (1,729)
+2.0%
Penalty Kill
44.8% (2,150)
49.6% (827)
-4.8%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +4.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Lowry is 52.2% vs right-shot opponents (4,010).
Lowry shoots left. Stamkos is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (8,806).
Home / Away
Lowry
Stamkos
Home
53.5% (5,920)
52.8% (6,270)
Away
49.6% (5,848)
49.3% (6,137)
By Period
Lowry
Stamkos
P1
51.6%
49.2%
P2
51.7%
52.7%
P3
51.5%
50.9%
OT
46.3%
54.3%
Final 5 min
52.8%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
52.0%▼
53.5%
51.6%
Stamkos
66.0%▲
56.5%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 11:41 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 2 | 17:34 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 1 | 09:01 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 2 | 06:56 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 2 | 01:11 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 1 | 06:30 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 1 | 04:18 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 30, 2024 | 3 | 17:27 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 30, 2024 | 3 | 14:46 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 30, 2024 | 2 | 16:50 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 30, 2024 | 2 | 10:06 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 30, 2024 | 2 | 03:35 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 30, 2024 | 1 | 19:20 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 30, 2024 | 1 | 03:37 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 3 | 08:02 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 2 | 05:29 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 2, 2024 | 2 | 19:57 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 22, 2023 | OT | 00:14 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 22, 2023 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 12, 2023 | 2 | 14:20 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |