Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +4.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Lowry on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 53.5% vs Hertl 57.5% (-4.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 78.5%
Defensive zone
Lowry 87.0%
Neutral zone
Lowry 58.9%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 60.8%
60.8%
39.2%
Lowry
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Lowry
Hertl
Last 5: Lowry 2-3 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Lowry
Hertl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
2
1
Lowry
Hertl
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
55.7% (707)
58.7% (858)
-3.0%
Power Play
85.7% (7)
55.8% (285)
+29.9%
Penalty Kill
39.0% (100)
62.9% (35)
-23.9%
On power play, Lowry has a +29.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Lowry is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (561).
Lowry shoots left. Hertl is 57.1% vs left-shot opponents (736).
Home / Away
Lowry
Hertl
Home
54.3% (429)
60.1% (599)
Away
53.5% (385)
56.1% (579)
By Period
Lowry
Hertl
P1
53.1%
52.4%
P2
55.2%
63.9%
P3
54.4%
58.5%
OT
40.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
57.1%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
52.0%▼
53.5%
53.9%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2026 | 3 | 13:15 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 2 | 19:29 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 6, 2026 | OT | 04:09 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 08:24 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 08:15 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |