Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (76% H2H, 29 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 51.6% vs Hertl 54.3% (-2.7%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 30-21 in 51 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 52.1%
Defensive zone
Lowry 87.4%
Neutral zone
Lowry 66.2%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 60.8%
60.8%
39.2%
Lowry
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
21
-
30
(51 meetings)
21
30
Lowry
Hertl
Last 10: Lowry 2-8 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
7
22
Lowry
Hertl
29 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
10
2
Lowry
Hertl
12 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
4
6
Lowry
Hertl
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
52.9% (9,162)
53.9% (8,303)
-1.0%
Power Play
57.2% (456)
59.2% (1,995)
-2.0%
Penalty Kill
44.8% (2,150)
46.3% (806)
-1.5%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Lowry is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,758).
Lowry shoots left. Hertl is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (6,962).
Home / Away
Lowry
Hertl
Home
53.5% (5,920)
55.8% (5,382)
Away
49.6% (5,848)
52.9% (5,722)
By Period
Lowry
Hertl
P1
51.6%
53.6%
P2
51.7%
54.2%
P3
51.5%
55.3%
OT
46.3%
46.9%
Final 5 min
52.8%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
52.0%▼
53.5%
51.6%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2026 | 3 | 13:15 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 2 | 19:29 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 6, 2026 | OT | 04:09 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 08:24 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 08:15 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 3 | 18:11 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 3 | 17:33 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 2 | 14:40 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 1 | 12:43 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 1 | 09:48 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 1 | 09:03 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 1 | 02:36 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 1 | 00:50 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 4, 2024 | 3 | 17:49 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 4, 2024 | 3 | 08:54 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 4, 2024 | 2 | 08:19 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 12, 2023 | 3 | 13:34 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 12, 2023 | 1 | 10:26 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |