Scouting Report
Adam Lowry holds a +8.4% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 53.5% vs Gourde 46.0% (+8.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lowry 74.7%
Defensive zone
Lowry 84.4%
Neutral zone
Lowry 75.1%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 79.6%
79.6%
20.4%
Lowry
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Lowry
Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
1
0
Lowry
Gourde
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
1
0
Lowry
Gourde
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
55.7% (707)
47.2% (687)
+8.5%
Power Play
85.7% (7)
45.0% (20)
+40.7%
Penalty Kill
39.0% (100)
33.0% (88)
+6.0%
On power play, Lowry has a +40.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Lowry is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (561).
Lowry shoots left. Gourde is 46.6% vs left-shot opponents (522).
Home / Away
Lowry
Gourde
Home
54.3% (429)
44.4% (356)
Away
53.5% (385)
46.5% (439)
By Period
Lowry
Gourde
P1
53.1%
42.2%
P2
55.2%
50.0%
P3
54.4%
44.5%
OT
40.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
57.1%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
52.0%▼
53.5%
53.9%
Gourde
48.0%▲
46.0%
45.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2026 | 3 | 12:24 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 5, 2026 | 2 | 09:44 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |