Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (47.0% vs 46.2%). Look for MacKinnon on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Ruzicka wins 42.5% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ruzicka 48.1% vs MacKinnon 46.5% (+0.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 52.3%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 54.6%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 55.7%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 54.6%
45.4%
54.6%
Ruzicka
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Ruzicka
MacKinnon
Last 8: Ruzicka 3-5 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Ruzicka
MacKinnon
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Ruzicka
MacKinnon
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
3
Ruzicka
MacKinnon
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ruzicka
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
46.2% (173)
45.5% (1,190)
+0.7%
Power Play
60.0% (10)
56.4% (94)
+3.6%
On power play, Ruzicka has a +3.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Ruzicka is 42.5% vs right-shot opponents (80).
Ruzicka shoots left. MacKinnon is 45.7% vs left-shot opponents (905).
Home / Away
Ruzicka
MacKinnon
Home
39.3% (84)
47.8% (670)
Away
53.5% (99)
44.6% (644)
By Period
Ruzicka
MacKinnon
P1
45.8%
45.3%
P2
47.9%
48.5%
P3
47.5%
45.0%
Final 5 min
38.6%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ruzicka
44.0%▼
47.5%
47.0%
MacKinnon
54.0%▬
54.5%
46.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 18, 2024 | 2 | 12:22 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 18, 2024 | 2 | 09:52 | Neutral | Adam Ruzicka |
| Feb 18, 2024 | 1 | 05:53 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 11, 2023 | 1 | 18:14 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 25, 2023 | 3 | 02:11 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 25, 2023 | 2 | 11:18 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 25, 2023 | 2 | 05:19 | Offensive | Adam Ruzicka |
| Nov 25, 2023 | 1 | 15:59 | Defensive | Adam Ruzicka |