Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +12.2% FO% edge overall. Kempe wins 44.0% vs left-shot opponents — McDavid shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kempe 41.6% vs McDavid 48.1% (-12.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 82.0%
Defensive zone
McDavid 90.1%
Neutral zone
McDavid 88.8%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 84.7%
15.3%
84.7%
Kempe
McDavid
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
0
(3 meetings)
3
0
Kempe
McDavid
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kempe
2
0
Kempe
McDavid
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kempe
1
0
Kempe
McDavid
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kempe
McDavid
Edge
Even Strength
37.9% (103)
47.7% (686)
-9.8%
Power Play
30.6% (36)
49.3% (75)
-18.7%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (4)
48.9% (45)
-23.9%
On penalty kill, McDavid has a +23.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McDavid shoots left. Kempe is 44.0% vs left-shot opponents (84).
Kempe shoots left. McDavid is 45.5% vs left-shot opponents (580).
Home / Away
Kempe
McDavid
Home
35.8% (67)
50.0% (412)
Away
35.5% (76)
45.7% (394)
By Period
Kempe
McDavid
P1
36.5%
48.0%
P2
36.7%
48.5%
P3
31.4%
47.1%
OT
42.9%
50.0%
Final 5 min
40.0%
50.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kempe
26.0%▼
35.5%
35.7%
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 18:05 | Defensive | Adrian Kempe |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 17:43 | Offensive | Adrian Kempe |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 13:30 | Offensive | Adrian Kempe |