Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +7.3% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on neutral-zone draws (82% H2H, 11 meetings). Kempe wins 39.7% vs left-shot opponents — McDavid shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kempe 40.9% vs McDavid 47.8% (-7.3%)
H2H factor
McDavid leads 10-7 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
Kempe 71.6%
Defensive zone
Kempe 65.9%
Neutral zone
Kempe 65.0%
Result
Adrian Kempe favored at 66.3%
66.3%
33.7%
Kempe
McDavid
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
10
(17 meetings)
7
10
Kempe
McDavid
Last 10: Kempe 5-5 McDavid
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kempe
3
0
Kempe
McDavid
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kempe
2
1
Kempe
McDavid
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
9
Kempe
McDavid
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kempe
McDavid
Edge
Even Strength
40.2% (1,882)
47.7% (8,394)
-7.5%
Power Play
43.1% (211)
52.1% (374)
-9.0%
Penalty Kill
42.6% (54)
43.8% (281)
-1.2%
On power play, McDavid has a +9.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McDavid shoots left. Kempe is 39.7% vs left-shot opponents (1,356).
Kempe shoots left. McDavid is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (5,929).
Home / Away
Kempe
McDavid
Home
42.4% (1,046)
49.3% (4,582)
Away
38.8% (1,101)
46.2% (4,467)
By Period
Kempe
McDavid
P1
39.4%
46.5%
P2
40.1%
48.7%
P3
42.2%
48.3%
OT
37.0%
42.2%
Final 5 min
37.2%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kempe
26.0%▼
35.5%
40.5%
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 18:05 | Defensive | Adrian Kempe |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 17:43 | Offensive | Adrian Kempe |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 13:30 | Offensive | Adrian Kempe |
| Oct 5, 2019 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 5, 2019 | 1 | 18:26 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 5, 2019 | 1 | 02:30 | Neutral | Adrian Kempe |
| Oct 5, 2019 | 1 | 00:30 | Defensive | Adrian Kempe |
| Mar 26, 2019 | 2 | 00:43 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 26, 2019 | 1 | 11:55 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 5, 2019 | 1 | 13:57 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 29, 2018 | 2 | 09:13 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 29, 2018 | 1 | 13:49 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 25, 2018 | 2 | 08:52 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 25, 2018 | 2 | 04:13 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 2, 2018 | 2 | 00:34 | Neutral | Adrian Kempe |
| Jan 2, 2018 | 1 | 18:31 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 2, 2018 | 1 | 04:36 | Offensive | Adrian Kempe |