Scouting Report
Ryan Poehling holds a +12.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Kempe on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Kempe wins 44.0% vs left-shot opponents — Poehling shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kempe 41.6% vs Poehling 48.0% (-12.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kempe 83.5%
Defensive zone
Poehling 84.7%
Neutral zone
Poehling 58.2%
Result
Ryan Poehling favored at 50.6%
49.4%
50.6%
Kempe
Poehling
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Kempe
Poehling
Last 6: Kempe 3-3 Poehling
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kempe
3
0
Kempe
Poehling
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Poehling
0
3
Kempe
Poehling
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kempe
Poehling
Edge
Even Strength
37.9% (103)
50.4% (680)
-12.5%
Power Play
30.6% (36)
58.3% (12)
-27.7%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (4)
38.8% (219)
-13.8%
On power play, Poehling has a +27.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Poehling shoots left. Kempe is 44.0% vs left-shot opponents (84).
Kempe shoots left. Poehling is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (615).
Home / Away
Kempe
Poehling
Home
35.8% (67)
47.4% (422)
Away
35.5% (76)
48.1% (489)
By Period
Kempe
Poehling
P1
36.5%
53.3%
P2
36.7%
40.3%
P3
31.4%
50.0%
OT
42.9%
40.0%
Final 5 min
40.0%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kempe
26.0%▼
35.5%
35.7%
Poehling
60.0%▲
53.5%
47.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | OT | 03:03 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 1 | 07:19 | Offensive | Adrian Kempe |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 2 | 04:50 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 1 | 12:30 | Offensive | Adrian Kempe |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 1 | 07:26 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 2 | 03:00 | Offensive | Adrian Kempe |