Scouting Report
Ryan Poehling holds a +7.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Kempe on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Kempe wins 39.7% vs left-shot opponents — Poehling shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kempe 40.9% vs Poehling 48.3% (-7.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kempe 82.0%
Defensive zone
Poehling 84.0%
Neutral zone
Poehling 54.5%
Result
Ryan Poehling favored at 51.0%
49.0%
51.0%
Kempe
Poehling
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Kempe
Poehling
Last 6: Kempe 3-3 Poehling
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kempe
3
0
Kempe
Poehling
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Poehling
0
3
Kempe
Poehling
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kempe
Poehling
Edge
Even Strength
40.2% (1,882)
49.6% (2,780)
-9.4%
Power Play
43.1% (211)
51.6% (93)
-8.5%
Penalty Kill
42.6% (54)
41.7% (635)
+0.9%
On even strength, Poehling has a +9.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Poehling shoots left. Kempe is 39.7% vs left-shot opponents (1,356).
Kempe shoots left. Poehling is 47.4% vs left-shot opponents (2,357).
Home / Away
Kempe
Poehling
Home
42.4% (1,046)
49.3% (1,706)
Away
38.8% (1,101)
47.2% (1,802)
By Period
Kempe
Poehling
P1
39.4%
50.8%
P2
40.1%
47.1%
P3
42.2%
47.2%
OT
37.0%
40.0%
Final 5 min
37.2%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kempe
26.0%▼
35.5%
40.5%
Poehling
60.0%▲
53.5%
48.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | OT | 03:03 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 1 | 07:19 | Offensive | Adrian Kempe |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 2 | 04:50 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 1 | 12:30 | Offensive | Adrian Kempe |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 1 | 07:26 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 2 | 03:00 | Offensive | Adrian Kempe |