Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +10.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Monahan on defensive-zone draws (89% H2H, 9 meetings). Kempe wins 39.7% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kempe 40.9% vs Monahan 51.2% (-10.7%)
H2H factor
Kempe leads 14-13 in 27 meetings
Offensive zone
Monahan 61.1%
Defensive zone
Monahan 77.9%
Neutral zone
Monahan 77.6%
Result
Sean Monahan favored at 72.2%
27.8%
72.2%
Kempe
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
14
-
13
(27 meetings)
14
13
Kempe
Monahan
Last 10: Kempe 5-5 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kempe
7
2
Kempe
Monahan
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
1
8
Kempe
Monahan
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kempe
6
3
Kempe
Monahan
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kempe
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
40.2% (1,882)
51.1% (11,407)
-10.9%
Power Play
43.1% (211)
53.6% (2,582)
-10.5%
Penalty Kill
42.6% (54)
45.9% (772)
-3.3%
On even strength, Monahan has a +10.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Kempe is 39.7% vs left-shot opponents (1,356).
Kempe shoots left. Monahan is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (9,335).
Home / Away
Kempe
Monahan
Home
42.4% (1,046)
52.3% (7,387)
Away
38.8% (1,101)
50.2% (7,374)
By Period
Kempe
Monahan
P1
39.4%
51.0%
P2
40.1%
51.7%
P3
42.2%
51.0%
OT
37.0%
53.5%
Final 5 min
37.2%
50.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kempe
26.0%▼
35.5%
40.5%
Monahan
40.0%▼
51.0%
51.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 22, 2025 | 1 | 13:21 | Offensive | Adrian Kempe |
| Oct 8, 2019 | 2 | 10:51 | Neutral | Adrian Kempe |
| Mar 25, 2019 | 1 | 01:21 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 30, 2018 | 1 | 14:23 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 10, 2018 | 3 | 12:58 | Neutral | Adrian Kempe |
| Jan 24, 2018 | OT | 03:22 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 24, 2018 | OT | 01:01 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 24, 2018 | 3 | 16:44 | Neutral | Adrian Kempe |
| Jan 24, 2018 | 3 | 12:56 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 24, 2018 | 3 | 07:40 | Offensive | Adrian Kempe |
| Jan 24, 2018 | 3 | 07:10 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 24, 2018 | 3 | 06:57 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 24, 2018 | 3 | 04:09 | Neutral | Adrian Kempe |
| Jan 24, 2018 | 2 | 18:13 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 24, 2018 | 2 | 10:57 | Offensive | Adrian Kempe |
| Jan 24, 2018 | 2 | 10:44 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 24, 2018 | 1 | 00:33 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 4, 2018 | 3 | 02:56 | Offensive | Adrian Kempe |
| Jan 4, 2018 | 2 | 07:30 | Neutral | Adrian Kempe |
| Jan 4, 2018 | 1 | 19:15 | Neutral | Adrian Kempe |