Scouting Report
Aleksander Barkov holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Zacha on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Barkov wins 55.9% vs left-shot opponents — Zacha shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barkov 56.7% vs Zacha 54.4% (+2.5%)
H2H factor
Zacha leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Zacha 58.8%
Defensive zone
Zacha 59.5%
Neutral zone
Zacha 60.9%
Result
Pavel Zacha favored at 60.2%
39.8%
60.2%
Barkov
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
6
(10 meetings)
4
6
Barkov
Zacha
Last 10: Barkov 4-6 Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barkov
1
0
Barkov
Zacha
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
1
2
Barkov
Zacha
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zacha
2
4
Barkov
Zacha
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barkov
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
56.9% (740)
53.9% (787)
+3.0%
Power Play
63.3% (256)
63.2% (193)
+0.1%
Penalty Kill
45.2% (104)
44.3% (88)
+0.9%
On even strength, Barkov has a +3.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Barkov is 55.9% vs left-shot opponents (619).
Barkov shoots left. Zacha is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (621).
Home / Away
Barkov
Zacha
Home
57.4% (540)
56.7% (538)
Away
57.1% (560)
52.8% (530)
By Period
Barkov
Zacha
P1
57.6%
52.6%
P2
56.6%
54.8%
P3
56.9%
56.8%
OT
72.2%
59.1%
Final 5 min
57.3%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barkov
44.0%▼
47.5%
57.3%
Zacha
48.0%▼
51.0%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2024 | 3 | 04:28 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 3 | 02:37 | Neutral | Aleksander Barkov |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Aleksander Barkov |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 1 | 17:38 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 1 | 17:24 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 1 | 05:09 | Defensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 1 | 02:45 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 2 | 18:55 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 2 | 02:09 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |