Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +9.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Laferriere wins 39.5% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Laferriere 43.2% vs Aho 50.5% (-9.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Laferriere 68.7%
Defensive zone
Laferriere 88.5%
Neutral zone
Laferriere 76.8%
Result
Alex Laferriere favored at 72.8%
72.8%
27.2%
Laferriere
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Laferriere
Aho
Last 6: Laferriere 1-5 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
3
Laferriere
Aho
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
1
2
Laferriere
Aho
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Laferriere
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
41.8% (325)
50.5% (878)
-8.7%
Power Play
52.9% (17)
53.5% (144)
-0.6%
Penalty Kill
37.5% (72)
44.3% (61)
-6.8%
On even strength, Aho has a +8.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Laferriere is 39.5% vs left-shot opponents (299).
Laferriere shoots right. Aho is 55.5% vs right-shot opponents (380).
Home / Away
Laferriere
Aho
Home
40.2% (204)
53.8% (571)
Away
42.9% (210)
46.9% (512)
By Period
Laferriere
Aho
P1
32.5%
49.0%
P2
39.7%
51.7%
P3
48.9%
50.3%
OT
100.0%
58.8%
Final 5 min
40.4%
49.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Laferriere
38.0%▼
40.0%
41.5%
Aho
60.0%▲
50.5%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2026 | 3 | 16:49 | Neutral | Alex Laferriere |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 3 | 11:24 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 3 | 11:15 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 2 | 17:58 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 2 | 14:23 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 1 | 10:24 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |