Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +13.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on neutral-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings). Laferriere wins 40.1% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Laferriere 42.5% vs Hertl 54.3% (-13.3%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 9-1 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Laferriere 89.2%
Defensive zone
Laferriere 85.6%
Neutral zone
Laferriere 86.9%
Result
Alex Laferriere favored at 86.8%
86.8%
13.2%
Laferriere
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
9
(10 meetings)
1
9
Laferriere
Hertl
Last 10: Laferriere 1-9 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Laferriere
Hertl
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Laferriere
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
6
Laferriere
Hertl
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Laferriere
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
41.5% (427)
53.9% (8,303)
-12.4%
Power Play
50.0% (20)
59.2% (1,995)
-9.2%
Penalty Kill
36.4% (77)
46.3% (806)
-9.9%
On even strength, Hertl has a +12.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Laferriere is 40.1% vs left-shot opponents (384).
Laferriere shoots right. Hertl is 56.9% vs right-shot opponents (4,142).
Home / Away
Laferriere
Hertl
Home
40.2% (249)
55.8% (5,382)
Away
41.8% (275)
52.9% (5,722)
By Period
Laferriere
Hertl
P1
35.8%
53.6%
P2
39.1%
54.2%
P3
45.6%
55.3%
OT
100.0%
46.9%
Final 5 min
38.5%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Laferriere
38.0%▼
40.0%
41.0%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2026 | 3 | 13:26 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 5, 2026 | 1 | 01:49 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 14, 2026 | 3 | 11:23 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 14, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Alex Laferriere |
| Jan 14, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 14, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 2 | 17:32 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 24, 2025 | 2 | 02:09 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 2 | 17:17 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 1 | 18:48 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |