Scouting Report
Anthony Cirelli holds a +8.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Cirelli on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Tuch wins 38.2% vs left-shot opponents — Cirelli shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tuch 41.5% vs Cirelli 49.3% (-8.8%)
H2H factor
Cirelli leads 9-5 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Tuch 87.5%
Defensive zone
Cirelli 54.7%
Neutral zone
Tuch 68.7%
Result
Alex Tuch favored at 67.1%
67.1%
32.9%
Tuch
Cirelli
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
9
(14 meetings)
5
9
Tuch
Cirelli
Last 10: Tuch 3-7 Cirelli
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cirelli
2
3
Tuch
Cirelli
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cirelli
2
3
Tuch
Cirelli
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cirelli
1
3
Tuch
Cirelli
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tuch
Cirelli
Edge
Even Strength
38.7% (481)
49.7% (5,739)
-11.0%
Power Play
43.1% (204)
56.9% (578)
-13.8%
Penalty Kill
43.2% (111)
43.8% (1,209)
-0.6%
On power play, Cirelli has a +13.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cirelli shoots left. Tuch is 38.2% vs left-shot opponents (641).
Tuch shoots right. Cirelli is 48.5% vs right-shot opponents (2,874).
Home / Away
Tuch
Cirelli
Home
42.1% (394)
49.6% (3,838)
Away
38.8% (402)
49.1% (3,688)
By Period
Tuch
Cirelli
P1
44.7%
49.9%
P2
40.6%
48.7%
P3
36.0%
49.3%
OT
27.3%
51.1%
Final 5 min
39.0%
50.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tuch
42.0%▲
40.0%
40.5%
Cirelli
44.0%▼
49.5%
49.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 12:38 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 1 | 14:55 | Offensive | Alex Tuch |
| Apr 15, 2024 | 3 | 17:22 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Apr 15, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Apr 15, 2024 | 2 | 09:11 | Defensive | Alex Tuch |
| Apr 15, 2024 | 2 | 09:03 | Defensive | Alex Tuch |
| Apr 15, 2024 | 2 | 03:30 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Apr 15, 2024 | 1 | 10:59 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 3 | 10:21 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 2 | 13:11 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 1 | 01:35 | Neutral | Alex Tuch |
| Feb 23, 2023 | OT | 00:31 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Feb 5, 2019 | 1 | 03:34 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Oct 26, 2018 | 3 | 01:16 | Offensive | Alex Tuch |