Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +9.8% FO% edge overall. Tuch wins 37.2% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tuch 47.0% vs Larkin 52.2% (-9.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 63.3%
Defensive zone
Larkin 77.0%
Neutral zone
Larkin 61.5%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 63.3%
36.7%
63.3%
Tuch
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Tuch
Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tuch
1
0
Tuch
Larkin
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tuch
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
46.3% (54)
51.1% (915)
-4.8%
Power Play
33.3% (3)
59.4% (261)
-26.1%
Penalty Kill
27.3% (11)
48.2% (168)
-20.9%
On power play, Larkin has a +26.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Tuch is 37.2% vs left-shot opponents (43).
Tuch shoots right. Larkin is 50.9% vs right-shot opponents (479).
Home / Away
Tuch
Larkin
Home
48.5% (33)
51.7% (686)
Away
37.1% (35)
53.0% (658)
By Period
Tuch
Larkin
P1
33.3%
52.5%
P2
46.2%
52.7%
P3
52.9%
51.4%
OT
25.0%
61.3%
Final 5 min
41.7%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tuch
42.0%▲
40.0%
42.6%
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 2025 | 1 | 01:39 | Offensive | Alex Tuch |