Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +12.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Tuch wins 38.4% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tuch 41.6% vs Larkin 52.7% (-12.2%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 8-6 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Tuch 72.5%
Defensive zone
Larkin 60.2%
Neutral zone
Tuch 58.3%
Result
Alex Tuch favored at 58.1%
58.1%
41.9%
Tuch
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
8
(14 meetings)
6
8
Tuch
Larkin
Last 10: Tuch 4-6 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tuch
3
2
Tuch
Larkin
5 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Tuch
Larkin
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
4
Tuch
Larkin
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tuch
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
38.7% (475)
51.7% (8,914)
-13.0%
Power Play
43.3% (203)
58.5% (2,099)
-15.2%
Penalty Kill
43.0% (107)
50.1% (1,102)
-7.1%
On power play, Larkin has a +15.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Tuch is 38.4% vs left-shot opponents (632).
Tuch shoots right. Larkin is 52.0% vs right-shot opponents (4,342).
Home / Away
Tuch
Larkin
Home
42.2% (393)
54.0% (6,206)
Away
38.8% (392)
51.4% (5,909)
By Period
Tuch
Larkin
P1
45.0%
52.7%
P2
40.7%
53.1%
P3
35.7%
52.1%
OT
22.2%
58.6%
Final 5 min
39.0%
53.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tuch
44.0%▲
41.5%
40.5%
Larkin
50.0%▬
50.0%
52.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 2025 | 1 | 01:39 | Offensive | Alex Tuch |
| Mar 12, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 12, 2025 | 2 | 19:53 | Defensive | Alex Tuch |
| Dec 9, 2024 | 3 | 05:50 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 3 | 08:35 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 2 | 18:53 | Defensive | Alex Tuch |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 2 | 14:46 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 1 | 13:52 | Neutral | Alex Tuch |
| Apr 7, 2024 | 2 | 19:12 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 7, 2024 | 1 | 14:30 | Offensive | Alex Tuch |
| Nov 30, 2022 | 1 | 01:20 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 1 | 03:14 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 8, 2018 | 2 | 01:45 | Offensive | Alex Tuch |