Scouting Report
Alex Turcotte holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Coyle on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Turcotte wins 54.5% vs right-shot opponents — Coyle shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Turcotte 53.3% vs Coyle 50.5% (+3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Turcotte 65.3%
Defensive zone
Coyle 79.9%
Neutral zone
Coyle 55.9%
Result
Charlie Coyle favored at 60.4%
39.6%
60.4%
Turcotte
Coyle
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Turcotte
Coyle
Last 6: Turcotte 2-4 Coyle
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Turcotte
1
0
Turcotte
Coyle
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Coyle
0
2
Turcotte
Coyle
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Coyle
1
2
Turcotte
Coyle
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Turcotte
Coyle
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (461)
52.3% (853)
+1.3%
Power Play
70.0% (10)
44.4% (63)
+25.6%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
44.5% (191)
+55.5%
On penalty kill, Turcotte has a +55.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Coyle shoots right. Turcotte is 54.5% vs right-shot opponents (167).
Turcotte shoots left. Coyle is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (833).
Home / Away
Turcotte
Coyle
Home
53.2% (263)
49.0% (567)
Away
55.0% (209)
52.0% (540)
By Period
Turcotte
Coyle
P1
57.2%
49.5%
P2
59.6%
49.4%
P3
44.1%
52.6%
Final 5 min
52.6%
49.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Turcotte
40.0%▼
53.0%
54.0%
Coyle
50.0%▼
51.5%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 22, 2025 | 3 | 14:16 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Dec 22, 2025 | 3 | 05:53 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Dec 22, 2025 | 3 | 05:49 | Offensive | Alex Turcotte |
| Dec 22, 2025 | 3 | 05:46 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Dec 22, 2025 | 1 | 19:36 | Neutral | Alex Turcotte |
| Dec 22, 2025 | 1 | 09:35 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |