Scouting Report
Alex Turcotte holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Coyle on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Turcotte 51.3% vs Coyle 48.8% (+2.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Turcotte 56.8%
Defensive zone
Coyle 66.8%
Neutral zone
Coyle 54.6%
Result
Charlie Coyle favored at 56.8%
43.2%
56.8%
Turcotte
Coyle
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Turcotte
Coyle
Last 6: Turcotte 2-4 Coyle
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Turcotte
1
0
Turcotte
Coyle
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Coyle
0
2
Turcotte
Coyle
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Coyle
1
2
Turcotte
Coyle
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Turcotte
Coyle
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (656)
49.4% (7,898)
+1.7%
Power Play
61.9% (21)
50.0% (794)
+11.9%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
43.5% (1,100)
+56.5%
On penalty kill, Turcotte has a +56.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Coyle shoots right. Turcotte is 49.8% vs right-shot opponents (233).
Turcotte shoots left. Coyle is 48.0% vs left-shot opponents (7,015).
Home / Away
Turcotte
Coyle
Home
51.7% (346)
49.8% (4,865)
Away
51.2% (332)
47.9% (4,927)
By Period
Turcotte
Coyle
P1
53.8%
49.5%
P2
53.8%
48.3%
P3
46.5%
48.8%
Final 5 min
47.6%
48.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Turcotte
40.0%▼
53.0%
51.5%
Coyle
50.0%▼
51.5%
48.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 22, 2025 | 3 | 14:16 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Dec 22, 2025 | 3 | 05:53 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Dec 22, 2025 | 3 | 05:49 | Offensive | Alex Turcotte |
| Dec 22, 2025 | 3 | 05:46 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Dec 22, 2025 | 1 | 19:36 | Neutral | Alex Turcotte |
| Dec 22, 2025 | 1 | 09:35 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |