Scouting Report
Alex Turcotte holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Turcotte on neutral-zone draws (57% H2H, 7 meetings). Turcotte wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Ostapchuk shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Turcotte 53.3% vs Ostapchuk 50.6% (+3.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Turcotte 72.5%
Defensive zone
Ostapchuk 59.5%
Neutral zone
Turcotte 52.0%
Result
Alex Turcotte favored at 53.0%
53.0%
47.0%
Turcotte
Ostapchuk
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Turcotte
Ostapchuk
Last 9: Turcotte 5-4 Ostapchuk
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Turcotte
1
0
Turcotte
Ostapchuk
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ostapchuk
0
1
Turcotte
Ostapchuk
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Turcotte
4
3
Turcotte
Ostapchuk
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Turcotte
Ostapchuk
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (461)
52.5% (320)
+1.1%
Power Play
70.0% (10)
33.3% (3)
+36.7%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
42.4% (59)
+57.6%
On penalty kill, Turcotte has a +57.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ostapchuk shoots left. Turcotte is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (302).
Turcotte shoots left. Ostapchuk is 50.0% vs left-shot opponents (262).
Home / Away
Turcotte
Ostapchuk
Home
53.2% (263)
49.1% (171)
Away
55.0% (209)
52.1% (211)
By Period
Turcotte
Ostapchuk
P1
57.2%
50.4%
P2
59.6%
46.8%
P3
44.1%
55.1%
Final 5 min
52.6%
53.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Turcotte
40.0%▼
53.0%
54.0%
Ostapchuk
52.0%▲
50.5%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 7, 2026 | 3 | 05:38 | Neutral | Zack Ostapchuk |
| Jan 7, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Zack Ostapchuk |
| Jan 7, 2026 | 2 | 11:24 | Offensive | Alex Turcotte |
| Jan 7, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Alex Turcotte |
| Jan 7, 2026 | 1 | 00:09 | Neutral | Zack Ostapchuk |
| Jan 7, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Alex Turcotte |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 2 | 03:04 | Defensive | Zack Ostapchuk |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 1 | 19:50 | Neutral | Alex Turcotte |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 1 | 02:33 | Neutral | Alex Turcotte |