Alexander Kerfoot vs Nathan MacKinnon
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.8% vs 51.1%).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kerfoot 50.4% vs MacKinnon 51.0% (-0.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 77.1%
Defensive zone
Kerfoot 68.5%
Neutral zone
Kerfoot 56.2%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 54.3%
45.7%
54.3%
Kerfoot
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Kerfoot
MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kerfoot
1
0
Kerfoot
MacKinnon
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
1
Kerfoot
MacKinnon
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kerfoot
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (115)
49.7% (1,038)
+4.2%
Power Play
100.0% (1)
63.7% (157)
+36.3%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (16)
34.4% (32)
-9.4%
On power play, Kerfoot has a +36.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Kerfoot is 50.0% vs right-shot opponents (58).
Kerfoot shoots left. MacKinnon is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (886).
Home / Away
Kerfoot
MacKinnon
Home
41.7% (60)
53.1% (618)
Away
58.3% (72)
49.1% (609)
By Period
Kerfoot
MacKinnon
P1
53.8%
49.3%
P2
50.0%
53.0%
P3
47.8%
50.7%
Final 5 min
56.5%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kerfoot
54.0%▬
53.0%
50.8%
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 11:46 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 04:24 | Offensive | Alexander Kerfoot |