Alexander Kerfoot vs Nathan MacKinnon
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Alexander Kerfoot holds a +1.0% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (56% H2H, 9 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kerfoot 47.9% vs MacKinnon 46.8% (+1.0%)
H2H factor
MacKinnon leads 12-9 in 21 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 61.9%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 55.8%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 57.0%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 58.6%
41.4%
58.6%
Kerfoot
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
12
(21 meetings)
9
12
Kerfoot
MacKinnon
Last 10: Kerfoot 6-4 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
4
5
Kerfoot
MacKinnon
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
4
5
Kerfoot
MacKinnon
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
2
Kerfoot
MacKinnon
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kerfoot
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
48.8% (2,849)
46.1% (11,264)
+2.7%
Power Play
48.7% (265)
53.2% (1,421)
-4.5%
Penalty Kill
39.8% (389)
42.8% (502)
-3.0%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +4.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Kerfoot is 49.9% vs right-shot opponents (1,378).
Kerfoot shoots left. MacKinnon is 47.0% vs left-shot opponents (9,537).
Home / Away
Kerfoot
MacKinnon
Home
51.0% (1,795)
49.7% (6,471)
Away
44.4% (1,708)
43.9% (6,717)
By Period
Kerfoot
MacKinnon
P1
47.4%
47.4%
P2
46.0%
46.6%
P3
50.5%
46.1%
OT
29.4%
48.4%
Final 5 min
49.0%
49.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kerfoot
54.0%▬
53.0%
47.8%
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
46.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 11:46 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 04:24 | Offensive | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Dec 27, 2024 | 2 | 01:14 | Neutral | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Dec 27, 2024 | 1 | 14:27 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 3 | 15:38 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 24, 2024 | 2 | 02:55 | Offensive | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Oct 24, 2024 | 2 | 02:51 | Offensive | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Oct 24, 2024 | 1 | 08:05 | Defensive | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Oct 24, 2024 | 1 | 07:36 | Defensive | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Feb 18, 2024 | 1 | 10:33 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 1 | 11:40 | Defensive | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 1 | 06:31 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 3 | 09:49 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 3 | 03:17 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 2 | 09:39 | Defensive | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 2 | 05:25 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 2 | 03:35 | Offensive | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 1 | 18:08 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 31, 2022 | 1 | 04:23 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |