Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Kerfoot on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kerfoot 47.9% vs Dowd 50.7% (-2.9%)
H2H factor
Kerfoot leads 14-2 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Kerfoot 51.1%
Defensive zone
Dowd 58.5%
Neutral zone
Dowd 69.2%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 58.3%
41.7%
58.3%
Kerfoot
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
14
-
2
(16 meetings)
14
2
Kerfoot
Dowd
Last 10: Kerfoot 9-1 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kerfoot
7
0
Kerfoot
Dowd
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
2
Kerfoot
Dowd
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kerfoot
6
0
Kerfoot
Dowd
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kerfoot
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
48.8% (2,849)
52.3% (6,036)
-3.5%
Power Play
48.7% (265)
56.1% (164)
-7.4%
Penalty Kill
39.8% (389)
44.1% (1,638)
-4.3%
On power play, Dowd has a +7.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Kerfoot is 49.9% vs right-shot opponents (1,378).
Kerfoot shoots left. Dowd is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (5,158).
Home / Away
Kerfoot
Dowd
Home
51.0% (1,795)
51.9% (3,917)
Away
44.4% (1,708)
49.5% (3,922)
By Period
Kerfoot
Dowd
P1
47.4%
51.5%
P2
46.0%
50.4%
P3
50.5%
50.3%
OT
29.4%
45.9%
Final 5 min
49.0%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kerfoot
54.0%▬
53.0%
47.8%
Dowd
40.0%▼
47.0%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2026 | 3 | 05:13 | Defensive | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 2 | 19:33 | Neutral | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 2 | 19:25 | Neutral | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 2 | 05:26 | Neutral | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 1 | 10:13 | Neutral | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 1 | 11:12 | Neutral | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Feb 9, 2025 | 2 | 18:48 | Offensive | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Nov 18, 2024 | 3 | 02:39 | Offensive | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Nov 18, 2024 | 2 | 14:11 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 18, 2024 | 1 | 19:32 | Offensive | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Nov 18, 2024 | 1 | 05:32 | Offensive | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Nov 18, 2024 | 1 | 05:05 | Offensive | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Dec 4, 2023 | 2 | 01:49 | Offensive | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Dec 4, 2023 | 1 | 14:34 | Offensive | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Dec 4, 2023 | 1 | 08:03 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 2 | 03:53 | Neutral | Alexander Kerfoot |