Alexander Kerfoot vs Ryan O'Reilly
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kerfoot 50.4% vs O'Reilly 55.0% (-4.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 68.2%
Defensive zone
Kerfoot 59.5%
Neutral zone
Kerfoot 51.5%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 58.4%
41.6%
58.4%
Kerfoot
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Kerfoot
O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Kerfoot
O'Reilly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kerfoot
1
0
Kerfoot
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kerfoot
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (115)
55.7% (856)
-1.8%
Power Play
100.0% (1)
57.5% (233)
+42.5%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (16)
50.0% (144)
-25.0%
On power play, Kerfoot has a +42.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Kerfoot is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (74).
Kerfoot shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.8% vs left-shot opponents (703).
Home / Away
Kerfoot
O'Reilly
Home
41.7% (60)
55.5% (616)
Away
58.3% (72)
55.3% (617)
By Period
Kerfoot
O'Reilly
P1
53.8%
58.1%
P2
50.0%
54.9%
P3
47.8%
53.9%
Final 5 min
56.5%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kerfoot
54.0%▬
53.0%
50.8%
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 10:05 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 1 | 05:48 | Neutral | Alexander Kerfoot |