Alexander Kerfoot vs Ryan O'Reilly
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +8.2% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 16 meetings). Kerfoot wins 46.4% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kerfoot 47.9% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-8.2%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 22-16 in 38 meetings
Offensive zone
Kerfoot 82.5%
Defensive zone
Kerfoot 79.8%
Neutral zone
Kerfoot 82.5%
Result
Alexander Kerfoot favored at 81.4%
81.4%
18.6%
Kerfoot
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
16
-
22
(38 meetings)
16
22
Kerfoot
O'Reilly
Last 10: Kerfoot 4-6 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
4
12
Kerfoot
O'Reilly
16 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kerfoot
10
6
Kerfoot
O'Reilly
16 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
4
Kerfoot
O'Reilly
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kerfoot
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
48.8% (2,849)
56.2% (15,290)
-7.4%
Power Play
48.7% (265)
58.7% (3,457)
-10.0%
Penalty Kill
39.8% (389)
51.4% (2,826)
-11.6%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +11.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Kerfoot is 46.4% vs left-shot opponents (2,125).
Kerfoot shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,901).
Home / Away
Kerfoot
O'Reilly
Home
51.0% (1,795)
57.6% (10,799)
Away
44.4% (1,708)
54.4% (10,807)
By Period
Kerfoot
O'Reilly
P1
47.4%
55.6%
P2
46.0%
57.0%
P3
50.5%
55.0%
OT
29.4%
62.2%
Final 5 min
49.0%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kerfoot
54.0%▬
53.0%
47.8%
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 10:05 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 1 | 05:48 | Neutral | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Nov 9, 2024 | 2 | 13:32 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 3 | 16:00 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 3 | 15:47 | Defensive | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 3 | 10:57 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 3 | 04:19 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 3 | 00:50 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 2 | 19:00 | Defensive | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 2 | 11:12 | Defensive | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 2 | 10:57 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 1 | 04:15 | Defensive | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 3 | 03:07 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 2 | 06:58 | Offensive | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 2 | 06:48 | Defensive | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 1 | 00:10 | Offensive | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 3 | 18:52 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 3 | 18:33 | Neutral | Alexander Kerfoot |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 3 | 15:43 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |