Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Wennberg on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Wennberg wins 44.0% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Wennberg 46.2% vs Dowd 48.6% (-2.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Wennberg 68.8%
Defensive zone
Dowd 81.1%
Neutral zone
Dowd 60.4%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 62.4%
37.6%
62.4%
Wennberg
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Wennberg
Dowd
Last 8: Wennberg 5-3 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Wennberg
3
0
Wennberg
Dowd
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
2
3
Wennberg
Dowd
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Wennberg
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
45.7% (827)
51.0% (671)
-5.3%
Power Play
53.2% (250)
0.0% (2)
+53.2%
Penalty Kill
36.3% (179)
41.5% (224)
-5.2%
On power play, Wennberg has a +53.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Wennberg is 44.0% vs right-shot opponents (375).
Wennberg shoots left. Dowd is 47.1% vs left-shot opponents (571).
Home / Away
Wennberg
Dowd
Home
47.0% (621)
48.2% (471)
Away
44.7% (635)
48.8% (426)
By Period
Wennberg
Dowd
P1
44.7%
48.3%
P2
46.1%
46.8%
P3
47.2%
51.0%
OT
36.0%
30.0%
Final 5 min
45.2%
51.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Wennberg
42.0%▼
48.0%
45.9%
Dowd
40.0%▼
47.0%
48.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 15, 2026 | 2 | 04:18 | Offensive | Alexander Wennberg |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 2 | 00:56 | Offensive | Alexander Wennberg |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 1 | 16:14 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 1 | 07:24 | Defensive | Alexander Wennberg |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 1 | 01:58 | Defensive | Alexander Wennberg |
| Dec 3, 2025 | 3 | 11:36 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 3, 2025 | 1 | 15:48 | Offensive | Alexander Wennberg |
| Dec 3, 2025 | 1 | 05:00 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |