Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 24 meetings). Wennberg wins 42.2% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Wennberg 46.3% vs Dowd 50.7% (-4.4%)
H2H factor
Dowd leads 29-24 in 53 meetings
Offensive zone
Wennberg 80.1%
Defensive zone
Wennberg 53.7%
Neutral zone
Wennberg 59.8%
Result
Alexander Wennberg favored at 62.4%
62.4%
37.6%
Wennberg
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
24
-
29
(53 meetings)
24
29
Wennberg
Dowd
Last 10: Wennberg 7-3 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Wennberg
10
4
Wennberg
Dowd
14 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
7
17
Wennberg
Dowd
24 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
7
8
Wennberg
Dowd
15 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Wennberg
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
46.7% (9,327)
52.3% (6,036)
-5.6%
Power Play
49.5% (1,430)
56.1% (164)
-6.6%
Penalty Kill
38.7% (1,142)
44.1% (1,638)
-5.4%
On power play, Dowd has a +6.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Wennberg is 42.2% vs right-shot opponents (4,007).
Wennberg shoots left. Dowd is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (5,158).
Home / Away
Wennberg
Dowd
Home
47.6% (5,997)
51.9% (3,917)
Away
44.9% (5,902)
49.5% (3,922)
By Period
Wennberg
Dowd
P1
46.1%
51.5%
P2
46.2%
50.4%
P3
46.6%
50.3%
OT
44.8%
45.9%
Final 5 min
45.2%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Wennberg
42.0%▼
48.0%
46.3%
Dowd
40.0%▼
47.0%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 15, 2026 | 2 | 04:18 | Offensive | Alexander Wennberg |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 2 | 00:56 | Offensive | Alexander Wennberg |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 1 | 16:14 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 1 | 07:24 | Defensive | Alexander Wennberg |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 1 | 01:58 | Defensive | Alexander Wennberg |
| Dec 3, 2025 | 3 | 11:36 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 3, 2025 | 1 | 15:48 | Offensive | Alexander Wennberg |
| Dec 3, 2025 | 1 | 05:00 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 3 | 04:12 | Defensive | Alexander Wennberg |
| Dec 3, 2024 | OT | 00:20 | Offensive | Alexander Wennberg |
| Dec 3, 2024 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Alexander Wennberg |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 3 | 17:43 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 3 | 06:09 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 2 | 12:57 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 1 | 19:00 | Neutral | Alexander Wennberg |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 1 | 01:13 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 3 | 11:22 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 2 | 15:51 | Offensive | Alexander Wennberg |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 1 | 17:54 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 3 | 09:26 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |