Scouting Report
Andrew Copp holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Copp 53.5% vs Nelson 50.8% (+3.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Copp 50.0%
Defensive zone
Nelson 54.0%
Neutral zone
Nelson 50.9%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 52.0%
48.0%
52.0%
Copp
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Copp
Nelson
Last 9: Copp 4-5 Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Copp
2
1
Copp
Nelson
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
3
Copp
Nelson
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Copp
Nelson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Copp
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (728)
50.9% (928)
+3.5%
Power Play
56.0% (75)
59.8% (179)
-3.8%
Penalty Kill
45.8% (59)
43.4% (205)
+2.4%
On power play, Nelson has a +3.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Copp is 52.3% vs left-shot opponents (526).
Copp shoots left. Nelson is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (854).
Home / Away
Copp
Nelson
Home
54.4% (441)
52.9% (654)
Away
53.4% (421)
48.9% (658)
By Period
Copp
Nelson
P1
52.0%
48.4%
P2
55.8%
54.3%
P3
54.2%
50.5%
OT
20.0%
41.2%
Final 5 min
60.7%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Copp
54.0%▲
51.5%
53.9%
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
50.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2026 | 3 | 10:43 | Offensive | Andrew Copp |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 1 | 03:35 | Defensive | Andrew Copp |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 1 | 00:33 | Neutral | Andrew Copp |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 12:23 | Offensive | Andrew Copp |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 08:34 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 14:01 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 10:03 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 08:19 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 08:15 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |