Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Copp wins 53.3% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Copp 49.7% vs MacKinnon 50.5% (-1.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Copp 53.1%
Defensive zone
Copp 56.3%
Neutral zone
Copp 53.6%
Result
Andrew Copp favored at 53.2%
53.2%
46.8%
Copp
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Copp
MacKinnon
Last 5: Copp 1-4 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
4
Copp
MacKinnon
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Copp
1
0
Copp
MacKinnon
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Copp
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
52.2% (136)
49.3% (1,167)
+2.9%
Power Play
57.1% (7)
61.0% (187)
-3.9%
Penalty Kill
40.8% (49)
47.9% (167)
-7.1%
On penalty kill, MacKinnon has a +7.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Copp is 53.3% vs right-shot opponents (75).
Copp shoots left. MacKinnon is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (1,029).
Home / Away
Copp
MacKinnon
Home
58.2% (91)
57.7% (728)
Away
41.6% (101)
44.0% (793)
By Period
Copp
MacKinnon
P1
50.7%
50.1%
P2
50.0%
52.5%
P3
47.3%
49.3%
Final 5 min
54.5%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Copp
58.0%▲
54.5%
49.5%
MacKinnon
54.0%▬
54.5%
50.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2017 | 3 | 15:35 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 4, 2017 | 3 | 06:08 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 4, 2017 | 1 | 13:34 | Neutral | Andrew Copp |
| Feb 4, 2017 | 1 | 16:31 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 18, 2016 | 2 | 10:37 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |