Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on neutral-zone draws (57% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Copp 53.5% vs O'Reilly 55.0% (-1.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Copp 51.0%
Defensive zone
Copp 53.5%
Neutral zone
Copp 52.5%
Result
Andrew Copp favored at 52.7%
52.7%
47.3%
Copp
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Copp
O'Reilly
Last 9: Copp 4-5 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Copp
O'Reilly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
3
4
Copp
O'Reilly
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Copp
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (728)
55.7% (856)
-1.3%
Power Play
56.0% (75)
57.5% (233)
-1.5%
Penalty Kill
45.8% (59)
50.0% (144)
-4.2%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +4.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Copp is 52.3% vs left-shot opponents (526).
Copp shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.8% vs left-shot opponents (703).
Home / Away
Copp
O'Reilly
Home
54.4% (441)
55.5% (616)
Away
53.4% (421)
55.3% (617)
By Period
Copp
O'Reilly
P1
52.0%
58.1%
P2
55.8%
54.9%
P3
54.2%
53.9%
OT
20.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
60.7%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Copp
54.0%▲
51.5%
53.9%
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2026 | 3 | 17:34 | Defensive | Andrew Copp |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 3 | 10:37 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 2 | 12:00 | Neutral | Andrew Copp |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 2 | 06:44 | Neutral | Andrew Copp |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 1 | 07:45 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 1 | 04:51 | Neutral | Andrew Copp |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 1 | 02:50 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |