Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 15 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Copp 51.8% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-4.1%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 27-23 in 50 meetings
Offensive zone
Copp 60.4%
Defensive zone
Copp 65.5%
Neutral zone
Copp 63.2%
Result
Andrew Copp favored at 63.4%
63.4%
36.6%
Copp
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
23
-
27
(50 meetings)
23
27
Copp
O'Reilly
Last 10: Copp 4-6 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
5
10
Copp
O'Reilly
15 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Copp
13
10
Copp
O'Reilly
23 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
5
7
Copp
O'Reilly
12 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Copp
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
52.4% (5,488)
56.2% (15,290)
-3.8%
Power Play
57.8% (510)
58.7% (3,457)
-0.9%
Penalty Kill
45.3% (933)
51.4% (2,826)
-6.1%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +6.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Copp is 50.9% vs left-shot opponents (4,452).
Copp shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,901).
Home / Away
Copp
O'Reilly
Home
52.7% (3,561)
57.6% (10,799)
Away
51.0% (3,370)
54.4% (10,807)
By Period
Copp
O'Reilly
P1
52.9%
55.6%
P2
51.7%
57.0%
P3
51.4%
55.0%
OT
39.0%
62.2%
Final 5 min
51.6%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Copp
54.0%▲
51.5%
51.9%
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2026 | 3 | 17:34 | Defensive | Andrew Copp |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 3 | 10:37 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 2 | 12:00 | Neutral | Andrew Copp |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 2 | 06:44 | Neutral | Andrew Copp |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 1 | 07:45 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 1 | 04:51 | Neutral | Andrew Copp |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 1 | 02:50 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 3 | 06:10 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 2 | 03:57 | Offensive | Andrew Copp |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 3 | 18:02 | Defensive | Andrew Copp |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 2 | 07:47 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 1 | 19:57 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 23, 2024 | 3 | 11:10 | Defensive | Andrew Copp |
| Mar 23, 2024 | 2 | 19:53 | Defensive | Andrew Copp |
| Jan 29, 2022 | 3 | 10:05 | Defensive | Andrew Copp |
| Jan 29, 2022 | 2 | 16:55 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 29, 2022 | 2 | 06:17 | Offensive | Andrew Copp |
| Jan 29, 2022 | 2 | 03:31 | Defensive | Andrew Copp |