Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 8 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cirelli 48.9% vs Nelson 50.7% (-1.9%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 10-3 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Cirelli 64.6%
Defensive zone
Cirelli 67.0%
Neutral zone
Cirelli 65.6%
Result
Anthony Cirelli favored at 65.3%
65.3%
34.7%
Cirelli
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
10
(13 meetings)
3
10
Cirelli
Nelson
Last 10: Cirelli 2-8 Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
6
Cirelli
Nelson
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
0
3
Cirelli
Nelson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Cirelli
Nelson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cirelli
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
50.1% (668)
50.8% (917)
-0.7%
Power Play
68.9% (90)
59.1% (176)
+9.8%
Penalty Kill
36.7% (221)
43.1% (204)
-6.4%
On power play, Cirelli has a +9.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Cirelli is 49.5% vs left-shot opponents (655).
Cirelli shoots left. Nelson is 50.1% vs left-shot opponents (841).
Home / Away
Cirelli
Nelson
Home
53.0% (470)
52.6% (639)
Away
45.0% (509)
48.9% (658)
By Period
Cirelli
Nelson
P1
50.6%
48.3%
P2
49.2%
54.0%
P3
47.2%
50.4%
OT
30.8%
41.2%
Final 5 min
52.8%
51.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cirelli
44.0%▼
49.5%
48.8%
Nelson
54.0%▼
55.5%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 18:19 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 17:53 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 14:17 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 07:17 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 00:31 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 00:25 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 17:22 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 1 | 03:58 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 3 | 03:55 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 18:10 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 05:11 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 01:58 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 1 | 15:47 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |