Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cirelli 50.1% vs Nelson 51.9% (-2.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 69.2%
Defensive zone
Cirelli 52.3%
Neutral zone
Nelson 57.3%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 57.3%
42.7%
57.3%
Cirelli
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Cirelli
Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cirelli
1
0
Cirelli
Nelson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cirelli
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
49.9% (1,052)
51.3% (1,002)
-1.4%
Power Play
54.9% (82)
58.7% (126)
-3.8%
Penalty Kill
48.7% (158)
51.9% (81)
-3.2%
On power play, Nelson has a +3.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Cirelli is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (830).
Cirelli shoots left. Nelson is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (837).
Home / Away
Cirelli
Nelson
Home
46.7% (649)
52.5% (590)
Away
53.5% (643)
51.7% (619)
By Period
Cirelli
Nelson
P1
50.1%
50.5%
P2
51.1%
54.4%
P3
48.5%
51.4%
OT
64.3%
47.4%
Final 5 min
49.7%
57.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cirelli
44.0%▼
49.5%
50.1%
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
52.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2025 | 3 | 19:13 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |