Anthony Cirelli vs Brock Nelson
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Anthony Cirelli holds a +1.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Cirelli on defensive-zone draws (65% H2H, 23 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cirelli 49.3% vs Nelson 48.3% (+1.0%)
H2H factor
Cirelli leads 41-33 in 74 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 57.7%
Defensive zone
Cirelli 54.7%
Neutral zone
Nelson 50.9%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 51.6%
48.4%
51.6%
Cirelli
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
41
-
33
(74 meetings)
41
33
Cirelli
Nelson
Last 10: Cirelli 2-8 Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cirelli
14
13
Cirelli
Nelson
27 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cirelli
15
8
Cirelli
Nelson
23 total
Neutral Zone
Even
12
12
Cirelli
Nelson
24 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cirelli
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (5,739)
47.9% (9,744)
+1.8%
Power Play
56.9% (578)
54.7% (1,149)
+2.2%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (1,209)
43.8% (790)
+0.0%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Cirelli is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (4,652).
Cirelli shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,584).
Home / Away
Cirelli
Nelson
Home
49.6% (3,838)
50.1% (5,878)
Away
49.1% (3,688)
46.5% (5,806)
By Period
Cirelli
Nelson
P1
49.9%
48.7%
P2
48.7%
48.6%
P3
49.3%
47.7%
OT
51.1%
45.6%
Final 5 min
50.9%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cirelli
44.0%▼
49.5%
49.3%
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
48.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 18:19 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 17:53 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 14:17 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 07:17 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 00:31 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 00:25 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 17:22 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 1 | 03:58 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 3 | 03:55 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 18:10 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 05:11 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 01:58 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 1 | 15:47 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Feb 1, 2025 | 3 | 19:13 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 10:13 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 1 | 12:27 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 1 | 08:37 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 1 | 04:30 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 2 | 11:36 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |