Scouting Report
Anthony Cirelli holds a +9.6% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cirelli 48.9% vs Mercer 41.9% (+9.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mercer 72.2%
Defensive zone
Mercer 59.8%
Neutral zone
Mercer 68.4%
Result
Dawson Mercer favored at 68.4%
31.6%
68.4%
Cirelli
Mercer
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Cirelli
Mercer
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Mercer
0
2
Cirelli
Mercer
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cirelli
Mercer
Edge
Even Strength
50.1% (668)
38.8% (263)
+11.3%
Power Play
68.9% (90)
35.3% (17)
+33.6%
Penalty Kill
36.7% (221)
54.5% (11)
-17.8%
On power play, Cirelli has a +33.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Mercer shoots right. Cirelli is 47.5% vs right-shot opponents (324).
Cirelli shoots left. Mercer is 36.3% vs left-shot opponents (190).
Home / Away
Cirelli
Mercer
Home
53.0% (470)
35.2% (145)
Away
45.0% (509)
43.2% (146)
By Period
Cirelli
Mercer
P1
50.6%
32.7%
P2
49.2%
42.7%
P3
47.2%
42.9%
Final 5 min
52.8%
39.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cirelli
44.0%▼
49.5%
48.8%
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
39.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 16:17 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 1 | 13:48 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |