Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Cirelli on offensive-zone draws (56% H2H, 9 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cirelli 48.9% vs Larkin 52.2% (-3.6%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 7-7 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 52.6%
Defensive zone
Cirelli 50.9%
Neutral zone
Larkin 51.9%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 51.8%
48.2%
51.8%
Cirelli
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
7
(14 meetings)
7
7
Cirelli
Larkin
Last 10: Cirelli 6-4 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cirelli
5
4
Cirelli
Larkin
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
2
Cirelli
Larkin
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Cirelli
Larkin
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cirelli
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
50.1% (668)
51.1% (915)
-1.0%
Power Play
68.9% (90)
59.4% (261)
+9.5%
Penalty Kill
36.7% (221)
48.2% (168)
-11.5%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +11.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Cirelli is 49.5% vs left-shot opponents (655).
Cirelli shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (865).
Home / Away
Cirelli
Larkin
Home
53.0% (470)
51.7% (686)
Away
45.0% (509)
53.0% (658)
By Period
Cirelli
Larkin
P1
50.6%
52.5%
P2
49.2%
52.7%
P3
47.2%
51.4%
OT
30.8%
61.3%
Final 5 min
52.8%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cirelli
44.0%▼
49.5%
48.8%
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 28, 2025 | 3 | 11:32 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 3 | 09:13 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 2 | 08:17 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 2 | 06:47 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 1 | 18:32 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 1 | 05:43 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 1 | 01:19 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 1 | 00:59 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Oct 17, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 17, 2025 | 3 | 15:13 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Oct 17, 2025 | 3 | 04:04 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 17, 2025 | 2 | 05:09 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 17, 2025 | 2 | 03:16 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 17, 2025 | 1 | 16:50 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |