Scouting Report
Anthony Cirelli holds a +12.6% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cirelli 48.9% vs Hughes 39.5% (+12.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cirelli 55.6%
Defensive zone
Cirelli 83.3%
Neutral zone
Cirelli 63.4%
Result
Anthony Cirelli favored at 74.1%
74.1%
25.9%
Cirelli
Hughes
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Cirelli
Hughes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cirelli
1
0
Cirelli
Hughes
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Cirelli
Hughes
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cirelli
Hughes
Edge
Even Strength
50.1% (668)
36.7% (305)
+13.4%
Power Play
68.9% (90)
14.3% (7)
+54.6%
Penalty Kill
36.7% (221)
33.3% (6)
+3.4%
On power play, Cirelli has a +54.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hughes shoots left. Cirelli is 49.5% vs left-shot opponents (655).
Cirelli shoots left. Hughes is 33.0% vs left-shot opponents (206).
Home / Away
Cirelli
Hughes
Home
53.0% (470)
35.8% (159)
Away
45.0% (509)
36.5% (159)
By Period
Cirelli
Hughes
P1
50.6%
42.3%
P2
49.2%
28.2%
P3
47.2%
37.2%
Final 5 min
52.8%
27.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cirelli
44.0%▼
49.5%
48.8%
Hughes
38.0%▬
37.0%
36.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 17:48 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 17:30 | Defensive | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 2 | 12:30 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |