Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +6.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Cirelli on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cirelli 48.9% vs Staal 54.6% (-6.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Staal 85.7%
Defensive zone
Staal 88.7%
Neutral zone
Staal 79.5%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 85.7%
14.3%
85.7%
Cirelli
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
1
(7 meetings)
6
1
Cirelli
Staal
Last 7: Cirelli 6-1 Staal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cirelli
4
0
Cirelli
Staal
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cirelli
2
0
Cirelli
Staal
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
0
1
Cirelli
Staal
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cirelli
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
50.1% (668)
56.2% (989)
-6.1%
Power Play
68.9% (90)
66.0% (159)
+2.9%
Penalty Kill
36.7% (221)
42.7% (253)
-6.0%
On even strength, Staal has a +6.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. Cirelli is 49.5% vs left-shot opponents (655).
Cirelli shoots left. Staal is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (970).
Home / Away
Cirelli
Staal
Home
53.0% (470)
55.4% (699)
Away
45.0% (509)
54.4% (702)
By Period
Cirelli
Staal
P1
50.6%
55.7%
P2
49.2%
54.7%
P3
47.2%
53.4%
OT
30.8%
70.0%
Final 5 min
52.8%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cirelli
44.0%▼
49.5%
48.8%
Staal
52.0%▬
52.5%
54.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 18:29 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 14:29 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 14:32 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 02:07 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 1 | 10:35 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 1 | 06:00 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 1 | 03:27 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |