Scouting Report
Anthony Cirelli holds a +8.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Cirelli on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cirelli 48.9% vs Barzal 41.9% (+8.5%)
H2H factor
Cirelli leads 10-4 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Cirelli 65.9%
Defensive zone
Cirelli 90.5%
Neutral zone
Cirelli 89.0%
Result
Anthony Cirelli favored at 82.9%
82.9%
17.1%
Cirelli
Barzal
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
4
(14 meetings)
10
4
Cirelli
Barzal
Last 10: Cirelli 7-3 Barzal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cirelli
3
1
Cirelli
Barzal
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cirelli
4
1
Cirelli
Barzal
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cirelli
3
2
Cirelli
Barzal
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cirelli
Barzal
Edge
Even Strength
50.1% (668)
40.9% (469)
+9.2%
Power Play
68.9% (90)
34.2% (38)
+34.7%
Penalty Kill
36.7% (221)
28.6% (7)
+8.1%
On power play, Cirelli has a +34.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Barzal shoots right. Cirelli is 47.5% vs right-shot opponents (324).
Cirelli shoots left. Barzal is 39.4% vs left-shot opponents (398).
Home / Away
Cirelli
Barzal
Home
53.0% (470)
39.2% (250)
Away
45.0% (509)
41.3% (264)
By Period
Cirelli
Barzal
P1
50.6%
46.3%
P2
49.2%
36.7%
P3
47.2%
38.5%
OT
30.8%
0.0%
Final 5 min
52.8%
41.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cirelli
44.0%▼
49.5%
48.8%
Barzal
44.0%▬
45.0%
40.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 05:01 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 1 | 01:12 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 3 | 14:03 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 3 | 06:13 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 2 | 15:42 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 2 | 13:07 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 1 | 00:30 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Anthony Cirelli |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 17:14 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 2 | 09:54 | Defensive | Anthony Cirelli |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 1 | 01:59 | Offensive | Anthony Cirelli |